Noble: PNM, quo vadis? Anatomy of T&T’s electoral results

“There are two things that are important in politics,” said Mark Hanna, a 19th-century businessman and political kingmaker in Cleveland, Ohio. “The first is money, and I can’t remember what the second one is.”

Pete W Moore, the MA Hanna associate professor of politics at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio, gave this view on the electoral politics of rentier economies:

“At its most fundamental, the structuralist and statist approaches follow Joseph Schumpeter’s argument that the nature of a state’s resources should be a focal point for social and political analysis.

“Most important of all is the insight which events of fiscal history provide into the laws of social being and becoming and into the driving forces of the fate of nations, as well as into the manner in which concrete conditions, and in particular organisational forms, grow and pass away.

“The public finances are one of the best starting points for an investigation of society, especially though not exclusively of its political life.” (Schumpeter, 1954: 7) (Moore, 2000)

Schumpeter proposed a framework for understanding the interplay between social dynamics and economic processes, which emphasised the importance of factors such as entrepreneurial ability, innovation, and the role of class in shaping society.

He viewed these as dynamic processes rather than static structures. It will serve us well to apply his theory to understand how our society has evolved over the years and whether our political parties can remain viable.

Using the concept of our country having a rentier economy, let us examine our electoral outcomes over the last two and a half decades—beginning with an examination of our average oil revenue (based on our best available estimates), which reveals a sustained period of prosperity during the 2007 to 2015 period (see Figure 1).

In the heat of the 2025 elections, it seemed plausible to some that good times would return under our new government. After all, in the 2010-15 administration, the citizens did not worry about the country’s finances. See Table 1.

The counterargument of the Dr Keith Rowley/ Stuart Young administration in 2025 was that, after 2027, there might be increased prosperity with the Dragon Field coming online.

For much of the life of that administration (2015–2025), it appeared from newspaper reports that Trinidad and Tobago was under siege and that revenues were not being fairly distributed. The reality is that oil revenues had collapsed, and there was also the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

We also observe that voter turnout peaked in 2010 and 2015 and has been on a downward trajectory since then.

However, other factors also impacted the outcomes, according to Schumpeter.

To jog our collective memory or break it down, 2000 and 2001 marked an intense rivalry. “However, the ruling UNC was overcome by the climactic disunity and implosion of 2001…”

Brereton (2024, p 235) quotes the Express: “Even though he (Patrick Manning) had won a clear majority of seats, the margin of votes in the key seats was very thin: the nation was still evenly split.”

The actual votes were 307,348 (PNM) and 287,495 (UNC).

The 2002 Manning-led administration benefited providentially from the most significant energy boom ever. Oil revenues peaked at 54% of total revenue in 2007/8. Between 2003 and 2008, oil prices soared to three times the level between 1993 and 2002.

Manning created the Heritage Stabilisation Fund (replacing an earlier UNC Fund) with the intent “to provide the national community with those goods and services which are required to meet the needs of all our citizens as we chart the course to developed country status before 2020” (Brereton 2024, p 245).

There was a tremendous boost in direct expenditure in the social support sector. The Port of Spain skyline soared. The Chronic Disease Assistance Programme (CDAP) and visits to Mt Hope were made free to citizens.

But crime also mushroomed. Martin Joseph, quoting Patrick Manning, said in Parliament: “The escalation of violent crime and anti-social behaviour constitute the most fundamental threat to the economic and social development of our country and the well-being of our people.”

Both Basdeo Panday and Manning courted gang elements for political ends.

Then came 2007, and the disaffected UNC supporters coalesced under the banner of the Congress of the People (COP).

“COP is a coalition which brings together the upwardly mobile Afros who once provided the social and intellectual sinews of the PNM, the social and economically successful urban and suburban knife and fork ‘mayonnaise’ eating Indians who have graduated and migrated from the plantations, vegetable grounds and the lagoons of Central and South Trinidad, the non-orthodox Hindus who belong to the Arya Samaj, Sai Baba and other Hindu and Muslim groups, as well as the Presbyterian, Catholic and Born Again Christians.”

Note the size of the COP bloc.

The Elections and Boundaries Commission noted: “One significant factor which had never before played such a role was the influence of telecommunications, notably the broadcast media” (Brereton, 2024, p 279).

Massive Gosine along with ads featuring the 2002–07 achievements were the core messages. The COP pounded the role of Jack Warner’s funds in the UNC.

By the time the 2010 elections rolled around, Manning had been put on the defensive by insisting that Calder Hart, the UdeCOTT (the operating company to execute construction plans) chair, was not corrupt.

Rowley was vocal in his insistence on transparency, while the PNM ministers ducked parliamentary questions and the media. (Brereton, 2024, p 335-338). Manning called a snap election for 10 May.

The election results showed that the PNM lost nearly 13,000 votes, while the UNC gained about 113,000 votes and won. The ‘lost’ votes in 2007 (91,785) returned home, plus COP lost 37,300.

That election saw the introduction of psychometrics firms, such as Cambridge Analytica (CA), and troll factories, including the Internet Research Agency (IRA), which have had a significant impact on democratic politics. This has been achieved through the narrow targeting of political advertising (CA) and concerted disinformation campaigns on social media (IRA).

The 2010 Cambridge Analytica ‘Do So!’ campaign aimed to tip the balance of a closely contested election by promoting youth apathy. In other words, the PNM youth vote turned out in 2010 was being discouraged. https://philarchive.org/archive/PHASME

Corruption brought that UNC team down. Section 34 was the last straw.

“… We don’t trust the Government. No electorate should have to be saddled with a government it doesn’t trust, and to argue that we must put up with an untrustworthy government for five years is to play smart with foolishness.

“That’s why it’s called a democracy… We have the right to show our displeasure, and I am going to show it.”

The Guardian editorial reprimanded: “the Government would be well advised to acknowledge the scale of unhappiness with their administration that Friday’s protest indicates, and to improve their commitment to the transparency and accountability they promised on the campaign trail.”

The editorial called out Jack Warner for saying it was a case of ‘old PNM stalwarts’ conspiring against his party. Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj chided: “It is not a UNC issue, it is not a PNM issue, it is not a COP issue, it is a people issue. This is not an Indian issue, an African issue or a Chinese issue; this is (a) Trinidad and Tobago issue.”

By 2015, the price of oil had dropped. Columnist Raffique Shah weighed in on the shenanigans of the UNC administration and the actions of the then Central Bank Governor.

The PNM gained 91,000 votes. But the UNC vote remained largely intact. Only 6% moved away.

The handling of the Covid-19 pandemic primarily influenced the 2020 elections. However, the voter turnout dropped significantly (10%). The PNM lost 56,623 votes from the previous election.

It is within this context that the PNM found itself in this state. Oil and gas prices were down. The reckless statements by PNM ministers hurt deeply—there was no Manning-like sensitivity.

Ernesto Kesar, the Point Fortin UNC candidate and an alleged victim of UNC vindictiveness, said: “We need to get back to a type of governance that has heart. A type of governance that is empathetic. A type of governance that cares about the people who vote for them.

“The current Prime Minister continues not to display empathy, to give the media some flippant responses to very serious issues that have affected this country.”

Examine the Point Fortin statistics: voters sat on their hands (the lowest ever turnout since before 2000) while others voted for Kesar, who went after the youth vote and is a trusted quantity.

What do these results tell us about the PNM’s future? The voter turnout cratered in the Port of Spain PNM heartland. The PNM also underperformed in both the marginal and their ‘safe’ constituencies. (See Table 3.)

What should be said about the Diego Martin seats? The vaunted seat of Patrick Manning now has a turnout of 54%.

There are questions for the PNM leadership: Can they regain the confidence of those voters who sat out the elections? Can the PNM attract those whom Lloyd Best humorously called the ‘nowhereians’?

Who will lead the charge in the Parliament? Is the political leader and the front bench capable of handling the fight?

How can they win the support of the youth vote? Is the communication and understanding of social media up to the struggle?

How do they regain the confidence of the ‘floating voter’ who represents the quintessential ‘Trini Posse’?

If Fitzgerald Hinds was an albatross in the manner of Calder Hart, is the leadership prepared to jettison their albatrosses? Can the PNM leadership attract young, bright brains to create an effective backroom?

Will the leadership be as bold as Manning and place new faces in key positions? (I guess the Senatorial appointments have answered that question).

There are lessons from the early days of Patrick Manning:

“The truth is Mr Manning began to project as Opposition Leader the night of the elections. The reconstruction of the PNM is going to be a fascinating exercise.” (Brereton, 2024, p 126)

“You either want a new PNM, or you don’t”, and the voters decisively rejected the old one. (Brereton, 2004, p 127).

Quo vadis, PNM?